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HISTORY

 
 
 
For a tiny Himalayan backwater, Nepal has played a surprisingly pivotal role in Asian history. In its early days it reared the Buddha and hosted the great Indian emperor Ashoka; much later, its remarkable conquests led it into wars with Tibet and Britain, and during the past three decades it has come to be regarded as a vital buffer state by both India and China. Its name and recorded history go back nearly 3000 years, although it has existed as a nation for barely 200: before 1769, "Nepal" referred only to a kingdom based in the Kathmandu Valley

Beginnings
Neolithic tools found in the Kathmandu Valley indicate that humans have inhabited parts of Nepal for tens of thousands of years - and the fact that the shrines of Swayambhu and Changu Narayan are located on hilltops suggests that ancient animists may have lived and worshipped there as much as 200,000 years ago, while the valley floor was submerged under a primordial lake. The Newar creation myth, which tells of the bodhisattva Manjushri releasing the waters and establishing Swayambhu, perhaps preserves a dim racial memory of that prehistoric era.

Nepal's early semi-mythological geneal-ogies aren't borne out by any archeological evidence, but at some points they tally with other sources. The Kirata (or Kiranti) tribe pops up in several Hindu texts - and even in Ptolemy - although the term might well have applied to all hill people in the first millennium BC. Significantly, the Kirata were often described as a warlike people known for carrying deadly knives. Whoever they were, by the sixth or seventh century BC the Kirata appear to have divided into two distinct groups, one controlling the eastern hills and the other the Kathmandu Valley.

Hindus were by this time encroaching on the less malarial parts of the Tarai and founding the city-states of Mithila (modern Janakpur), the scene of many of the events in the Ramayan epic, and Kapilvastu (now Tilaurakot), where the Buddha spent his pre-enlightenment years during the sixth century BC. North India was unified under the Mauryan empire (321-184 BC), whose most famous ruler, Ashoka, was responsible for spreading Buddhism throughout the subcontinent, including Nepal. Following the fall of Maurya, north India was again divided among a number of states and Hinduism began a slow but inexorable comeback in the Tarai.

Early dynasties
Nepal's history comes into sharper focus with the arrival of the Lichhavis , a north Indian clan who overthrew the Kiratas around 200 AD and established their capital at Deopatan (modern Pashupatinath). Exploiting Nepal's position as a trading entrepôt between India and Tibet, the Lichhavis founded a strong, stable and culturally sophisticated dynasty. No buildings from the period survive, but contemporary accounts by Chinese travellers describe "multi-storeyed temples so tall one would take them for a crown of clouds" - perhaps a reference to the pagoda style that was to become a Nepali trademark. Under Lichhavi sponsorship, artisans ushered in a classical age of stone sculpture and produced Nepal's most acclaimed pieces, many of which still casually litter the Kathmandu Valley. Although Hindus, the Lichhavis endowed both Hindu and Buddhist temples - Pashupatinath and Swayambhu were built, or at least expanded, during their rule - and established a policy of religious tolerance that has been maintained to the present day.

Much of what we know about the Lichhavis comes from a handful of stone inscriptions whose authors were probably more intent on self-praise than historical accuracy. The earliest inscription, dated 464 AD and still on view at Changu Narayan, extols Manadeva , the legendary builder of the Boudha stupa. The greatest of the Lichhavi line, Amsuvarman (605-621) is said to have composed the first Sanskrit grammar and built a splendid palace believed to have been located at present-day Naksal in Kathmandu. "Down to the reign of this monarch the gods showed themselves plainly in bodily shape," intone the Nepalese chronicles, "but after this they became invisible." By this time Nepal had become a vassal of Tibet, and Amsuvarman's daughter Bhrikuti, who was carried off by the Tibetan king, is popularly credited with introducing Buddhism to Tibet.

The Lichhavi era came to a close in 879, and the three centuries that followed are sometimes referred to as Nepal's "Dark Ages". The Nepalese chronicles record a long list of Thakuri kings , although the title was probably a Hindu honorific and not the name of an hereditary dynasty; these kings may well have been puppets installed by one or more of the powers controlling the Tarai at the time. Nonetheless, learning and the arts continued to thrive, and from the eleventh century onwards the valley became an important centre of tantric studies.

The Khasas and Mallas
While the Thakuris were ruling central Nepal, yet another Hindu clan, the Khasas , were migrating up from the plains and carving out a small fiefdom in western Tibet. In the early twelfth century a Khasa king, Nagaraja, moved his capital down to Sinja in the Karnali basin and established a powerful dynasty which at its height controlled a broad sector of the Himalaya from Kashmir to present-day Pokhara. The history of the Khasas is little understood, for they left few written records and only minor ruins at Sinja (now Hatsinja) and Dullu, south of Jumla.

Nepal entered a new and much better documented period of its history when the Thakuri king of Bhaktapur, Arideva, took the title Malla , probably in the year 1200. Malla was, in fact, a popular form of royal address in India at the time - the Khasa kings also called themselves Mallas - but the name has come to be associated with at least three separate dynasties, lasting more than five centuries, that presided over the renaissance of Nepali culture during which most of the temples and palaces still on display in the Kathmandu Valley were built.

The early Malla era was marked by great instability: the Khasas mounted several raids on the valley, although they were never able to gain a ruling foothold, and in 1349 Muslims swept up from Bengal and pillaged both Hindu and Buddhist holy sites in a brief spree of destruction and violence. Despite these disruptions, trade flourished, many of the valley's smaller cities were founded, and Arniko, the great Nepali architect, was dispatched to the Ming court to instruct the Chinese in the art of building pagodas. Jayasthiti Malla (1354-95) inaugurated a period of strong central rule from Bhaktapur, but his most lasting contribution was to dragoon his Buddhist subjects into the Hindu hierarchy by dividing them into 64 occupational castes - a system which remained enshrined in Nepali law until 1964. Malla power reached its zenith under Yaksha Malla (1428-82), who extended his domain westwards to Gorkha and eastwards as far as present-day Biratnagar. Upon his death, the kingdom was divided among three sons, and for nearly three centuries the independent city states of Kathmandu, Patan and Bhaktapur (and occasionally others) feuded over lucrative trade arrangements with Tibet. Judging by the opulent durbars built during this period, there must have been enough to go around, and the intense rivalry seems to have been good for both art and business.

The Khasa kings didn't fare so well, and by the late fourteenth century their empire had fragmented into a collection of petty provinces. The Muslim conquest of north India during the early part of the century figured indirectly in Khasa's downfall: a steady stream of princes from Rajasthan, which had borne the brunt of the invasion, limped into the Khasa hills in search of consolation prizes, and rapidly wheedled their way into positions of power. Those who took the reins of the Khasa provinces came to be known as the Baaisi Raja (Twenty-two Princes), while others who subjugated Magar and Gurung states to the east became the Chaubisi (Twenty-four).

Unification
For three centuries the Chaubisi and Baaisi confederacies were able to maintain an uneasy status quo, forming numerous defensive alliances to ensure that no one state could gain control over the rest. Divided, they were small, weak and culturally backward. Gorkha , the most easterly territory, was no different from the rest, except that it was that much closer to the Kathmandu Valley and that much more jealous of the Mallas' wealth. Under the inspired, obsessive leadership of Prithvi Narayan Shah (1722-75), Gorkha launched a campaign that was to take 27 years to conquer the valley, and as long again to unite all of modern Nepal.

At the time of Prithvi Narayan's rise to the throne, in 1743, rivalry between the three Malla kings had reached an all-time high. Still, Gorkha wasn't nearly strong enough to invade Nepal outright; Prithvi Narayan first captured Nuwakot, a day's march northwest of Kathmandu, and from there directed a ruthless twenty-year war of attrition . By 1764 he was able to enforce a total blockade, starving the valley and at the same time replenishing Gorkha's coffers with Tibetan trade. Kirtipur was targeted for the first major battle, and surrendered after a six-month siege. Answering a plea from the Kathmandu king, Jaya Prakash Malla, the East India Company sent in 2400 soldiers against the Gorkhalis, who proceeded to cut them to shreds; only 800 returned. On the eve of Indra Jaatra in 1768, Jaya Prakash, by now rumoured to be insane, let down the city's defences and Kathmandu fell to the Gorkhalis without a fight. They took Patan two days later, and Bhaktapur the following year, and by 1774 had marched eastwards all the way to Sikkim.

Suspicious of Britain's growing influence in India, Prithvi Narayan adopted a closed-door policy that was to remain in force until the 1950s. Missionaries were thrown out forthwith: "First the Bible, then the trading station, then the cannon," he warned. The bloody battle for succession that followed Prithvi Narayan's death set the pattern for Nepali politics well into the twentieth century. Yet when they weren't stabbing each other in the back, his successors managed to subdue Gorkha's old Chaubisi and Baaisi rivals in the west, so that by 1790 Nepal stretched far beyond its present eastern and western borders. Lured on by promises of land grants - every hillman's dream - the Nepali army became a seemingly unstoppable fighting machine, with Kashmir in its sights.

Westward progress was interrupted, however, by a brief but chastening war with Tibet . Troubles had been brewing for some time over trade relations, and the Tibetans were growing alarmed by Nepal's encroachments on their ally, Sikkim. In 1788 and again in 1791, Nepal invaded, plundered a few monasteries and exacted tribute from Tibet, but in 1792 the Tibetans launched a counterattack, penetrating as far as Nuwakot and forcing Nepal to accept harsh terms.

Nepal's further adventures in the west brought it into increasing conflict with Britain 's East India Company, which by now controlled India, and open hostilities broke out in 1814 when Nepal annexed the Butwal sector of the Tarai. For the British, the dispute provided a perfect pretext to "open up" Nepal, which had been so tantalizingly closed to them, and thus to muscle in on trade with Tibet. Britain attacked with a force of 50,000 men against Nepal's 12,000, expecting an easy victory; in the event it took two years and heavy losses before Nepal was finally brought to heel. The Treaty of Segauli forced Nepal to accept its present eastern and western boundaries and surrender much of the Tarai, and worst of all, to admit an official British "resident" in Kathmandu. Yet so impressed were the British by "our valiant opponent" - as a plaque at an Indian battle site still proclaims - that they began recruiting Nepalis into the Indian Army before the treaty had even been signed. These companies formed the basis for the famed Gurkha regiments . Britain restored Nepal's Tarai lands in return for its help in quelling the Indian Mutiny of 1857.

The Rana years
The Kathmandu court was practically paralysed by intrigue and assassinations during the first half of the nineteenth century, culminating in the ghastly Kot massacre of 1846, in which more than fifty courtiers were butchered in a courtyard off Kathmandu's Durbar Square. In the ensuing upheaval, a shrewd young general, Jang Bahadur , seized power, took the title Rana and proclaimed himself prime minister for life, an office which he later made hereditary by establishing a complicated roll of succession. Though the "Rana" title has generally been equated with that of a prime minister, technically it conferred a grade of kingship. The holder's full title was Shri Tin Maharaja (short for Shri Shri Shri Maharaja; "Shri" is an honorific prefix). The king's was, and still is, Shri Paanch (Five Shri) Maharajdhiraj. For the next century, the kings of Nepal were nothing more than puppets, while Ranas ruled like shoguns and packed the palace with their ever-increasing offspring. Authoritarian and blatantly exploitative, they built grandiose palaces while putting virtually no money into public works, suppressed education for fear it would awaken opposition, and remained firmly isolationist to avoid losing control to the British. (Ironically, an impoverished Nepal suited Britain, since it assured a steady supply of willing Gurkha cannon fodder.) Only a handful of foreign dignitaries were allowed to enter - usually only as far as Chitwan - and even the British resident wasn't allowed to venture beyond the Kathmandu Valley. To survey Nepal and Tibet, Britain had to send in Indian spies disguised as Buddhist monks.

Yet Jang Bahadur knew the value of staying on good terms with the British Raj, now at its zenith; in 1850 he broke with tradition and travelled to England, where he met Queen Victoria and by all accounts cut a dashing figure. He returned with several Western affectations, including a fondness for Neoclassical architecture and epaulettes; soon after, to his credit, he abolished the practice of sati.

Other Ranas continued in the same vein. Chandra Shamsher Rana , who came to power in 1901 by deposing his brother, is best known for building the thousand-roomed Singha Durbar and (belatedly) abolishing slavery. He also made some feeble attempts at modernization, including the construction of Nepal's first college, railway, hydroelectric plant and paved roads. By 1940, underground resistance against the regime was developing, and Juddha Shamsher Rana had four plotters executed; after the fall of the Ranas these men were declared martyrs and a monument south of Kathmandu's Tudikhel was erected in their honour.

The monarchy restored
The Ranas' anachronistic regime wasn't able to survive long after World War II, from which over 200,000 soldiers returned with dangerous ideas of freedom and justice. In 1947 the British quit India, and with them went the Ranas' chief support. The new Indian government mistrusted the Ranas, and became genuinely worried about Nepal's weakness as a buffer state after the Communist takeover of China in 1949. Seeking stability, India signed a far-reaching " peace and friendship " treaty with Nepal in 1950 which, despite the upheavals that were to follow, remains the basis for all relations between the two countries.

Later the same year the strategic balance shifted again as a result of the Chinese invasion of Tibet, and the Nepali Congress Party , recently formed in Calcutta, called for an armed struggle against the Ranas. Within a month, King Tribhuwan had requested asylum at the Indian embassy and was smuggled away to Delhi; the next morning, the Nepali Congress Party launched simultaneous assaults on Birganj and Biratnagar. Sporadic fighting continued for two months until the Ranas, internationally discredited, reluctantly agreed to enter into negotiations. Brokered by India, the so-called Delhi Compromise arranged for Ranas and the Congress Party to share power under the king's rule, with Nepalis given the right to vote in the parliamentary-style democracy.

The compromise was short-lived. Tribhuwan , a previously retiring figure, emerged as a "hero of the revolution" and an adroit politician, and before the end of 1951 he had dismissed the Rana prime minister. This was an end to the Rana regime, but not Rana influence: by an agreement that has never been made public, the Shah royal family continues to appoint Ranas to most key military posts, and the families are inseparably tied by marriage (the queen is a Rana, and two of her sisters are married to two of the king's brothers). In his four years as king, however, Tribhuwan neither consolidated his power nor delivered the elections he promised. Unaccountable to the voters, the party bosses who controlled the interim government weren't much of an improvement over the Ranas.

Panchaayat politics
Crowned in 1955, King Mahendra lost no time in offsetting the parties' power by developing his own grassroots network of village leaders, forcing the parties to do likewise. They demanded elections; the king stalled, but finally agreed to a vote in 1959. Amazingly, the Nepali Congress Party swept seventy percent of the seats, and under Prime Minister B. P. Koirala began bypassing palace control and creating a party machine very much like India's. Mahendra was none too pleased with this " experiment with democracy ", as it came to be called - the following year he sacked the cabinet, banned political parties and threw the leaders in jail. For the rest of his reign he relied on heavy police measures to quell dissent.

In place of democracy, Mahendra offered the " partyless " panchaayat system , a uniquely Nepali form of government that grew out of the king's old-boy village network. Village councils ( panchaayat) were established to look after local affairs; these were to send one representative on to a district council, which in turn elected members to a national assembly. The king chose the prime minister and cabinet and appointed one-fifth of the national assembly, which served as a rubber stamp for his policies. "Partylessness" meant, of course, one party - the king's. The panchaayat system conveniently preserved an illusion of democracy while silencing opposition and ensuring loyalty to the king: in other words, it was a new and improved version of absolute monarchy. Corruption was the same as before, only now more decentralized, as every village panchaayat wallah had a tiny piece of the pie.

India was unhappy with the changes, but Mahendra, unlike his father, didn't owe his crown to India, and sought wider international support. He threw open Nepal's doors to foreign aid , which endeared him to the major powers, enriched the state's coffers and swelled the bureaucracy. After the 1962 Sino-Indian border war, Mahendra was able to exploit Nepal's buffer position with particular skill, alternately playing off the two powers against each other to obtain economic and military aid; no sooner had India completed the Rajpath, Nepal's first highway from the plains to Kathmandu, for example, than Mahendra persuaded the Chinese to extend the road to Tibet, much to India's horror. The " China card " became an important unofficial strand of foreign policy, but ultimately it was to help bring about the downfall of the panchaayat system.

The present king, Birendra , assumed power after Mahendra's death in 1972, although for astrological reasons wasn't actually crowned until 1975. Educated at Eton and Harvard, the young king set out as an enlightened reformer, taking steps to curb the bureaucracy and cronyism that had flourished under his father. Reacting to Mahendra's laissez-faire policies on tourism - which had become Nepal's major industry - he cracked down on the growing hippie population by tightening visa restrictions. In 1975, in what was to be the shrewdest and most popular move of his career, the new king proposed designating Nepal a Zone of Peace , a Swiss-style neutrality pledge that would at first glance appear to be completely unassailable. India, however, has consistently opposed the measure as a violation of the 1950 "peace and friendship" treaty, which provides for mutual defence, while cynics like to point out the irony of Nepal - home of the Gurkhas, the world's most formidable mercenary soldiers - declaring itself a peace zone.

Birendra's domestic reforms soon ran out of steam, and discontent grew over corruption and the slow pace of development. Widespread uprisings broke out in 1979, forcing the king to promise a national referendum in which voters could choose between the panchaayat system and multiparty democracy. Democracy lost by a margin of 55 to 45 - many say the vote was rigged - and the panchaayat system was retained.

During the 1980s Birendra proved himself to be an earnest but weak leader, easily manipulated by advisers and the queen - forever chaperoned by minders with walkie-talkies, he simply fell out of touch with the people. Despite token tinkerings with the system, the gravy train got more crowded throughout the decade, and insiders, sensing that the regime's days were numbered, tried to grab everything they could in the time remaining. In 1988 the king's brother, Dhirendra, was forced to relinquish his title as prince to avoid wide-ranging corruption charges. The king himself was rumoured to have Swiss bank accounts and an island in the Maldives (or Greece). Political opponents were imprisoned, while freedom of speech and the press was nonexistent. Diplomats insist Birendra was uninvolved with any shady dealings, but he would have had to be incredibly naive not to have known what was going on in his name

Democracy restored
The chickens started coming home to roost in March 1989, when India, outraged by (among other things) Nepal's purchase of anti-aircraft guns from China, retaliated with a crippling trade embargo . Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi - who had long professed a deep distaste for Birendra's antiquated monarchy - apparently believed shortages of fuel and medicines would touch off a popular uprising and topple the regime in a matter of weeks. Only his timing was off. The government rode out the immediate crisis by closing the universities, rationing fuel and whipping up traditional anti-Indian sentiment, until the Indian elections in December, when Gandhi's more conciliatory successor, V. P. Singh, eased the embargo.

But after eight months of hardship, inflation and police action, Nepalis were fed up, and India could no longer be cast as the villain. The previous year had witnessed China's failed pro-democracy movement at Tiananmen Square and the spectacularly successful revolutions in Eastern Europe: Nepalis were enormously stirred by these examples. Seeing their chance, the banned opposition parties united in the so-called Movement to Restore Democracy , demanding an end to the panchaayat system and the creation of a constitutional monarchy. They called for a national day of protest on February 18, 1990 - a date already designated by the government, with unintended irony, as Democracy Day. Hundreds of opposition members were duly placed under house arrest, and the planned revolt got off to a shaky start. Yet Faagun 7 (the Nepali date of Democracy Day) marked the true launch of the Jana Andolan ("People's Movement"), which in subsequent weeks gathered strength, resulting in violent clashes and deaths in Bhaktapur, Narayanghat and Hetauda. Even while under detention, opposition leaders were able to call strikes and blackouts at will. The king, counselled by hardliners, kept silence.

On April 3, protesters overran Patan, and three days later an estimated 200,000 people marched up Kathmandu's Durbar Marg towards the Royal Palace. The army fired into the crowd, killing at least 45 people, and an ominous shoot-on-sight curfew was imposed. Finally moved to action by the massacre, the king dissolved his cabinet, legalized political parties and invited the opposition to form an interim government with Bhattarai as prime minister. The panchaayat system was dead.

After a few hiccups, the changeover to democracy proceeded in an orderly, if leisurely, fashion. By November 1990 the interim government had ratified a new constitution guaranteeing free speech, human rights and a constitutional monarchy. Under its provisions, the king "reigns but does not rule": he remains the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but cannot make any executive decisions without consulting the prime minister and cabinet. The old Rastriya Panchaayat was replaced by a Parliament consisting of a directly elected House of Representatives and a smaller National Assembly.

After a suitable interval to allow the news of democracy to percolate into the remoter regions, Nepal's first free elections in more than thirty years were held in May 1991. The Nepal Congress Party, which had paid its dues in exile for three decades and could claim much of the credit for bringing down the panchaayat system, won a majority - but not by much. While the rest of the world was backpedalling from communism as fast as it could, Nepal's several Communist parties put in a strong showing, maintaining their traditional strongholds in the east and, incredibly, sweeping the comfortable Kathmandu Valley. The National Democratic Party, largely packed with former panchaayat -wallahs, went down in a ball of flames. It was a clear referendum against the old guard, but a less than enthusiastic vote of confidence for the Congress Party.

Congress, communism and breakdown
Any government inheriting such immense challenges with so slender a mandate was probably doomed to disappoint, and the first Nepali Congress government's honeymoon was short-lived. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, brother of the late B. P. Koirala, Nepal's first democratically elected prime minister, lost little time not only in attracting the enmity of the opposition Communists but also alienating many in his own party.

Antagonism between the Indian-sponsored Congress Party and the Communists, who looked to China as their only remaining ideological mentor, produced strong political polarities on almost every issue. For example, Congress supported the cause of Tibetan refugees in a way that the panchaayat regime never did, which the Communists viewed as provocative to China. Yet the Communists certainly spoke for many Nepalis when they accused Congress leaders of selling out Nepal's interests to India. This frustration coalesced into a long squabble over the Tanakpur project - a $65 million hydroelectric diversion built by India on the Mahakali River, which forms the western border between the two countries - in which the government was accused of signing away most of Nepal's rights to the water and power generated from the river.

Unemployment, unrest, Indianization and political infighting produced widespread disillusion, forcing Koirala to step down in 1994. The ensuing election produced a hung parliament, with the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) , the largest of several communist parties, stepping forward to form a minority government. Among supporters, Asia's first democratically elected Communist government kindled much idealism, but lacking a parliamentary majority, CPN-UML leader Manmohan Adhikari could only pursue a modest programme of reform.

The Communists' leadership came to an abrupt end after only nine months, when in 1995 the Supreme Court nullified the earlier election results and reinstated the previous parliament. This controversial decision, in which the Court interpreted the Constitution as barring the prime minister from calling midterm polls, was to have a crippling effect on the functioning of the Nepalese state: in effect, it saddled the country with a hung parliament and prevented the voters from doing anything about it until the next scheduled election. This set in train five years of political chaos, with no fewer than six governments attempting to cobble together coalitions in every combination: left, centre-right, left-right and centre-left.

A Nepali Congress-led government, headed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, lasted eighteen months with a slim majority before falling in early 1997. The Rastriya Prajanatantra Party (RPP) , a rightist group comprised mainly of Panchaayat-era veterans, presided over the two short-lived governments that followed. However, the RPP proceeded to self-destruct in early 1998, provoking a constitutional crisis and causing power to return to the Nepali Congress Party under G. P. Koirala. As if things weren't unstable enough, the CPN-UML then split in two, adding further fragmentation and acrimony. That opened the door for the Nepali Congress to take on the breakaway CPN-ML as its minority partner, but the bitter rivalry between the CPN-ML and the UML opposition created paralysis. By the end of 1998, the ML had pulled out of the coalition, and the Nepali Congress, seeing the writing on the wall, formed a caretaker government with essentially no role but to conduct fresh elections the following May.

These political upheavals took a toll on Nepal and its already lagging development. Preoccupied by short-term concerns and petty crises, successive governments were in no position to take decisive action or follow through on earlier plans. Nepalis looked on helplessly as their unaccountable leaders engaged in unseemly squabbles, forged Machiavellian alliances and lined their pockets at the public's expense. Corruption and cronyism became institutionalized as political parties relied on kickbacks to support themselves and created elaborate systems of patronage, and as constant political infighting meant that any accusation of wrongdoing could be dismissed as party-political. Frequent changes of government gave politicians a further incentive to grab it while they could. All this caused Nepalis to lose faith in their new democracy. Many concluded that it had merely transferred power from one set of elites to another, and some sought to overthrow the system through armed rebellion. Even the normally apolitical donor community began sending a clear message that foreign aid to Nepal was in jeopardy if the government didn't clean up its act.

Nepal's Maoist insurgency
Despite outward appearances, Nepal is not at peace. Since 1996, an underground Maoist movement has been waging a campaign of violent opposition against the government. As of this writing, the so-called People's War had claimed more than 600 lives; no incidents had involved foreigners, as the fighting has largely been confined to remote rural areas where tourists don't go. However, the insurgency has the potential to escalate into a full-scale civil war.

Before turning to guerrilla warfare, the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) was one of several bona fide factions that participated in the 1990 democracy movement. Dissatisfied with the deals struck by the major parties after the restoration of democracy, extremists in the group went underground; the failure of the 1994-95 Communist government apparently confirmed their belief that change wasn't possible by working within the system. In 1996 they launched the People's War with sporadic attacks on police stations in the midwestern hills, and subsequently expanded the conflict to encompass more than half the districts of Nepal. Intimidation and disruption - kidnapping and assassinating government officials, bombing telecommunications facilities and other infrastructure - have been their main tactics in an effort to undermine support for the status quo, while at the same time playing for the public's sympathies through populist stunts such as raiding banks and destroying loan papers. They're able to call general strikes ( bandh) at will, although it's debatable whether their success at this indicates true support or merely shopkeepers' and bus owners' fear of getting their windows smashed.

True to their name, Nepal's Maoists hope to bring about an agrarian, peasant-based revolution modelled after the one led by Mao Zedong; like China in the 1940s, Nepal is overwhelmingly rural, with relatively few of the urban proletarians glorified in the Marxist-Leninist strain of communism. The insurgents have therefore sought first to consolidate their power in the countryside, recruiting cadres from among the disaffected youth and driving out the forces of the establishment. The plan is eventually to encircle the cities with "liberated" villages and finally to overpower the urban areas.

Successive governments have considered the Maoists terrorists and responded with force. This approach has made dialogue impossible, and has left the underlying cause of the uprising - lack of development in rural areas - unaddressed. And while to its credit the government has so far refrained from calling out the army, it has used the police force to conduct purges that, according to Amnesty International, have included widespread arbitrary arrests, disappearances and extrajudicial killings. It's notable that 500 of the 600 people who have died in the People's War have been Maoists. All of this has helped force the rebels into a position where they feel they have no alternative but to fight, and nothing to lose.

The People's War is essentially a symptom of poverty, unemployment and bad governance - it's a desperate struggle by desperate people. Nepalis are amazingly tolerant of oppression, so by the time they get fed up enough to take up arms the situation is probably very bad, and may be irreconcilable. That's not to say the Maoists have the support of enough of the populace to overthrow the government; what popularity they enjoy seems to be mainly an expression of frustration with the mainstream parties. But the government would do well to heed that message, rather than shooting the messenger

 
 
 
 

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